Advertise   |  Magazine   |  About Us   |  Where to Pick Up a Copy   |  Site News   |  FAQ   |  Contact Us
Log In / Register


KIV Community

How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Chat about everything to do with your health, fitness and wellness. Diet & Nutrition, health questions, exercise ideas...

Moderators: Glowingtouch, kattnipp

 

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby bye kiv it's been fun ;) on Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:42 am

The numbers are all from the CBC News article link posted at the bottom.
bye kiv it's been fun ;)
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby bye kiv it's been fun ;) on Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:46 am

Here it is in the context of one portion of the CBC News article (note, this is not the entire article):

Flu death statistics not collected

In a perfect world, the flu death statistic would be based on an actual count of confirmed deaths after infection with the flu virus. But that's difficult to do, because autopsies are almost never done, lab tests for the flu virus are rarely done, and someone could die from the complications of flu even though the virus is no longer detectable in their bodies.

The numbers we do have don't even come close to the computer estimates. In Statistics Canada's "deaths and mortality" table, under "cause of death: influenza," there were only about 300 deaths a year between 2000 and 2008. Public health officials don't trust that number. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.

But Jefferson believes the models overstate the risk from influenza. "There are no real figures on deaths from influenza. They don't collect that information," he said. "So if they don't collect that information, how do they know it's a threat? And if they don't collect that information, how do they know that their policies will work? This is called faith-based medicine, not evidence-based medicine."

220-michael-gardam
Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious disease expert at Toronto's University Health Network, says estimates of the number of flu deaths each year "vary a great deal depending on which research paper you read." (CBC)

"Could the deaths be being caused by other pathogens? It's an important question," Dr. Kumanan Wilson told me. He holds the Canada Research Chair in public health policy at the University of Ottawa. He's also a hospital clinician who has seen many flu seasons.

"We see lots of people coming in with upper respiratory infections and we don't know what causes it. Sometimes if they are really sick, we'll test for influenza. We rarely test for anything else."

One of the few attempts to check the accuracy of the models in assessing flu deaths was done by one of Wilson's master's students, and her thesis is interesting reading.

Using data from three Ottawa hospitals over seven flu seasons, Tiffany Smith did two things. First, she counted the patients who died from flu, according to a doctor’s diagnosis. Then, using one of the official flu modelling methods, she ran a computer model to see how close the actual body count matched the statistical estimates. Her result? The statistical model predicted eight times as many deaths from flu as there were actual clinical cases.

"I have found evidence to suggest that point estimates of influenza burden generated using statistical models may not be reliable," she concluded, "and that more research is required to understand the limitations of this methodology."

Remember, that's an unpublished thesis, not a peer-reviewed study. But Wilson said it was a well done paper that posed some important questions.
bye kiv it's been fun ;)
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby Aladora on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:02 am

this beautiful bliss wrote:The numbers are all from the CBC News article link posted at the bottom.


I think that it is important to do your research and come to your own conclusions but this is where my views on statistics and your friend's views differ.

I read the information you posted and then went to the source to find out what the various agencies are actually reporting instead of believing the numbers reported in a news article. That's why when I found your friend's numbers to be accurate for some and wildly inaccurate for others I posted the correct numbers.

Look at both sides all you want but make sure you are looking at accurate figures and not just ones that support what you believe to be true.
Susan
When life hands you lemons, ask for the tequila and salt!
User avatar
Aladora
KIV Advertiser
KIV Advertiser
 
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:18 am
Location: On the Left Coast
Region:

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby VicStepmom on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:03 am

TBB -

There is no conspiracy to explain the discrepancy.

I used to work for the Vital Statistics Agency, and collecting and reporting information on cause of death is not as simple as it first appears. There are often primary causes of death and contributing factors. Nurses are trained to determine and enter the cause of death. At the end of the day everyone can only die once.

Think about this in a little more detail. Who does the flu kill? And why does it kill them?

It kills those who are already contending with all kinds of health problems. The person who has cancer and has hade their immune system wiped out by chemo/radiation. The person who has HIV/AIDS. The person who is already severely underweight and frail.

So when that person dies, is it listed as flu or is it listed as cancer? Is it listed as cardiovascular disease or is it listed as flu? Often it is the cancer or the cardiovascular disease that is listed as the cause of death as that is the condition that was primarily responsible (but for the cancer, the person would have survived the flu). However, if that person hadn't contracted the flu they may have survived with their underlying condition for many more years.

This is how 8,000 become 300. The 300 are the people for whom there was no other underlying condition that was primarily responsible for the death. It doesn't mean flu didn't kill the other 7,700 - indeed it was the nail in the coffin - it just means that when it comes to tabulated who is dead and from what the accounts of statitistics canada and the estimates of the medical community may differ.

This is why it is important to vaccinate - because, while you or I might survive the flu, there's a good number of people (grandparents, siblings, children) who cannot and they deserve to be protected.

Not that you'll care about a logical reason for the discrepancy - as you are determined to believe in a conspiracy.
User avatar
VicStepmom
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:32 am

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby bye kiv it's been fun ;) on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:21 am

I guess I need to post the entire article here so maybe you'll read it. It's saying a lot more about the numbers then what you are saying.

Do thousands of Canadians really die every year from the flu? The flu folks keep saying so. I've already heard it repeated several times this year and flu season has just started. This is what the Public Health Agency of Canada said in a recent press release: "Every year, between 2,000 and 8,000 Canadians die of the flu and its complications."

In a CBC interview a few weeks ago an editor of the Canadian Medical Association Journal said: "Four thousand to 8,000 people die every year of influenza."

It comes directly from the desk of Canada's chief public health officer. "The flu is serious," he tells us from his website. "Every year, between 2,000 and 8,000 Canadians die of the flu and its complications."

Did you ever wonder how they know that? The fact is, they don't know that. "This is a scientific guess. This is not the truth," Dr. Michael Gardam, director of the infection prevention and control unit at the University Health Network in Toronto and a longtime flu watcher, told me.

The fact is, no one knows how many people die after being infected with the flu virus. The death estimates are not based on body counts, lab tests or autopsies.

"I think people may have the misconception that every person who dies from the flu is somehow counted somewhere, and they're not," Gardam said.

The "2,000 to 8,000" numbers are based on computer models — a statistical guess that comes out of the end of a mathematical formula that makes a range of assumptions about death and flu.

"They're tossing it into a big computer and they're churning out estimates," Gardam said as he scribbled numbers on a white board to show me how the models work.

One model counts all respiratory and circulatory deaths — that's death from heart and lung failure — as flu deaths.

"As an upper limit, they are looking at everybody who died of a heart and lung problem," Gardam said. "So you could imagine this could include people who died of a heart attack that had nothing to do with flu, but the feeling is that anybody who died of flu should be captured in there, plus a lot of other people."

At the lower end of that model they count the number of deaths officially listed as "influenza" on the death certificate, plus all deaths from pneumonia — even though not all pneumonia is caused by flu.

"That is going to include obviously people who died specifically of those, but it might miss people who died of influenza but who didn't get tested, for example," Gardam said.

Data can include deaths by poison

Another model assumes that every extra death that happens in the winter is a flu death. At the risk of oversimplifying, this is the basic formula of that model: winter deaths (minus) summer deaths = death by flu virus.

That includes winter deaths from slippery sidewalks, snowy roads, freezing temperatures, plus all the winter heart failure, lung failure and deaths from cancer. In the language of the computer model, all excess mortality in winter is considered "death by flu."

The model extrapolates that the flu virus will cause more deaths across all causes, including "disorders of the nervous system," stroke and "disorders of the digestive system." Which means that according to the model, flu causes 33 more "accidental falls" every year, 18 more "accidental poisonings," and 68 more deaths from "psychotic conditions." But what does flu have to do with deaths from accidental poisonings or accidental falls?

'If they don't collect that information, how do they know that their policies will work? This is called faith-based medicine.'
— Dr. Tom Jefferson

How reliable are the computer model estimates? "I don't think they're reliable at all," Dr. Tom Jefferson told me. He is a Rome-based researcher with the Cochrane Collaboration, and he spends his days reviewing all the research on acute respiratory infections and vaccines. He said hard data on flu deaths "are difficult to get hold of for obvious reasons. So enter modelling, which is nothing more than guesswork, highly sensitive to the assumptions you feed into the model. 'Give me a model and I will make it say whatever you want,' a colleague of mine always repeats."

The models are only as good as the data sets that are fed into them. And death can be complicated. If someone already extremely fragile with heart or lung disease is tipped over the edge with a flu infection, is that a flu death, or a heart death or a lung death? Which database gets to claim it?

"The only mortality estimates which have any credibility are those based on post mortem examinations and tests which were done before death," Jefferson said.

Flu death statistics not collected

In a perfect world, the flu death statistic would be based on an actual count of confirmed deaths after infection with the flu virus. But that's difficult to do, because autopsies are almost never done, lab tests for the flu virus are rarely done, and someone could die from the complications of flu even though the virus is no longer detectable in their bodies.

The numbers we do have don't even come close to the computer estimates. In Statistics Canada's "deaths and mortality" table, under "cause of death: influenza," there were only about 300 deaths a year between 2000 and 2008. Public health officials don't trust that number. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.

But Jefferson believes the models overstate the risk from influenza. "There are no real figures on deaths from influenza. They don't collect that information," he said. "So if they don't collect that information, how do they know it's a threat? And if they don't collect that information, how do they know that their policies will work? This is called faith-based medicine, not evidence-based medicine."

Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious disease expert at Toronto's University Health Network, says estimates of the number of flu deaths each year "vary a great deal depending on which research paper you read." (CBC)

"Could the deaths be being caused by other pathogens? It's an important question," Dr. Kumanan Wilson told me. He holds the Canada Research Chair in public health policy at the University of Ottawa. He's also a hospital clinician who has seen many flu seasons.

"We see lots of people coming in with upper respiratory infections and we don't know what causes it. Sometimes if they are really sick, we'll test for influenza. We rarely test for anything else."

One of the few attempts to check the accuracy of the models in assessing flu deaths was done by one of Wilson's master's students, and her thesis is interesting reading.

Using data from three Ottawa hospitals over seven flu seasons, Tiffany Smith did two things. First, she counted the patients who died from flu, according to a doctor’s diagnosis. Then, using one of the official flu modelling methods, she ran a computer model to see how close the actual body count matched the statistical estimates. Her result? The statistical model predicted eight times as many deaths from flu as there were actual clinical cases.

"I have found evidence to suggest that point estimates of influenza burden generated using statistical models may not be reliable," she concluded, "and that more research is required to understand the limitations of this methodology."

Remember, that's an unpublished thesis, not a peer-reviewed study. But Wilson said it was a well done paper that posed some important questions.

Health Canada resists queries

Just as an aside, I tried to contact Tiffany Smith to ask about her thesis, because she is one of the few people to attempt to validate the models. It seemed that she wanted to talk to me. Here's her response to my email:

Hi Kelly, I would love to talk to you about my thesis! However, because I work for the Agency, I'm obliged to engage media relations even if it's just for background info.

The "Agency" is the federal government, specifically, the Public Health Agency of Canada, a branch of Health Canada. My request for permission to talk to Tiffany about her student thesis was directed all the way up to the chief of media relations for Health Canada. Here is my email to him:

Hello. My name is Kelly Crowe and I am the medical sciences correspondent for CBC National TV news and I would like to talk to Tiffany Smith about her graduate thesis, as background research for a story I am doing. She is interested in talking to me, but she has been told that she needs to get permission, and she forwarded me your email address and suggested I contact you.

It would be a phone conversation about her master's thesis, and I will not be asking her any questions about her current work. I would not be speaking to her as a representative of a government agency, but only as the author of a student thesis.

Thank you, Kelly Crowe

He wrote back, declining on Tiffany Smith's behalf, although he did offer me a chance to ask about the official government point of view. His email:

Hello, Kelly.

Please accept my apologies for not getting back to you yesterday. I was out of the office with a bad cold. I've spoken with Tiffany and she would prefer that you quote from her written thesis as her current workload doesn't leave her a lot of extra time these days.

That being said, if you have any questions for PHAC on the subject matter I am happy to have one of our media relations officers get in touch with you. I understand that my colleague Blossom Leung is working with Marijka Hurko already for your piece that is to air this Sunday.

Regards, Alastair

As a further aside, despite Alastair Sinclair's offer to answer questions, we were refused an on camera interview with anyone from Health Canada about any of this. All we received was a written response to our questions, which I have included at the end of this article.

Flu models versus counts

Getting back to the question of how deadly influenza really is, fate did offer up a chance to check the model predictions when the flu pandemic hit in 2009, and the world faced a new influenza threat called H1N1.

Back then a flu expert told me that the pandemic would be a rare opportunity to check the true death toll from flu, because, for the first time, there was widespread lab testing, a national reporting system, and all eyes were on potential flu-related deaths. The final count: 428 deaths, which is much closer to the seasonal average of around 300 recorded in the vital statistics tables than to the 2,000 to 8,000 deaths estimated for the average flu season by the computer models.

So how did the models rate after a real life test? "The predictive models of 2009 of influenza have actually been a complete failure," respiratory-infection expert Jefferson said.

"Ranges like 2,000 to 4,000 or even 8,000 influenza-related deaths a year are thrown around each flu season, and policy decisions and flu shot campaigns are based on these numbers," Michael Gardam told me. "I think it is important for us to remember that these numbers are estimates and certainly not written in stone. These numbers vary a great deal depending on which research paper you read."

There's another point to consider here. Using death estimates is the scariest way to talk about the risk from flu, because 8,000 thousand sounds like a lot of deaths. But if you ask, "8,000 deaths out of how many people?" suddenly the risk seems much smaller. In fact, it would be 8,000 deaths among 35 million Canadians. In other words, in a normal flu season, about 0.02 per cent of Canadians are in danger of dying from the flu, using the highest estimate. Another way to look at it is this: 99.98 per cent of Canadians will not die of flu this year.

Undermining flu campaigns

So are the statistical models exaggerating the death toll from flu? "Not enough people have been asking these questions," the University of Ottawa's Wilson said. "These are complicated models. There are multiple ways to calculate the information. Five different analysts with the same data can come up with five different estimates. It depends on how they calculate base line risk, how they define when the season begins, how to run the model. There are lots of potential variables in the model that will influence your answer."

Influenza prevention has become an industry fuelled by poor science, says Dr. Tom Jefferson. (CBC)

For proof of how models keep changing their estimates, look back at Canada's flu files. More than a decade ago, flu was estimated to kill about 500 to 1,500 Canadians every year. But in 2003 Health Canada changed models, and the estimates jumped to "700 to 2,500 per annum." The 2,500 deaths at the upper end of that range quickly became the lower end, when an even newer model was tried in 2007, pushing the upper limit to 8,000 based on the severe flu seasons of 1997 to 1999.

"Influenza prevention has become an industry fuelled by poor science and propelled by conflicted decision makers," Jefferson said. "This is the significance of the upward creep that you have been witnessing and the chasm that now exists between policy makers and evidence.

"The proof of what I am saying is in the answer to the question: How many die every year? Answer: maybe 300 or maybe 9,000. We are not sure. If you do not know, how can you have such a costly policy and most of all how can you evaluate it?"

When I asked him if there are consequences from over-stating the mortality impact of flu, Jefferson answered: "Yes. Scaring people justifies evidence-free policies. Yes, no one knows exactly what the threat is. The only certainty are the returns for industry."

Wilson is concerned that overstating deaths could undermine the annual flu campaign. "I think this is a potential risk," he said. "It's a good idea to try to capture the number of deaths. People just need to reflect the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty in these numbers and that has not necessarily been conveyed. Even if the estimate is 1,000 or 2,000, it’s a big number. A more conservative approach might be better to convince people it’s a real disease that we have to take seriously."

One expert I talked to suggests that at least some of the cost of the annual flu campaign should be directed at finding out how much death the virus actually causes every year, by using a system of doctors and hospitals to track laboratory confirmation of flu infections and flu mortality.

The flu virus has lots of ugly company in the winter — less famous viruses such as RSV (respiratory syncytial virus); the ubiquitous cold bugs, including the coronavirus and the adenovirus; as well as Streptococcus pneumonia and all of its bacterial friends. Influenza is certainly one of the nastiest viruses in the group. It also happens to be the only one with a vaccine.

"You’ve got to wonder: The stuff we’re attributing to influenza, how much of that is actually true and how much of that is other viruses? We don’t know because they haven’t been studied," University Health Network's Gardam said.

Just 1 death this year

For the record, how many official deaths from flu have been reported so far this year? One.

And finally, as promised, here’s the official response I received from the Public Health Agency of Canada:

Q1. How are the numbers derived? (i.e., how is it counted? are there any statistical models?) The number of flu related hospitalizations and deaths is not a straightforward estimate, given that influenza is such a non-specific illness and its diagnosis is under-reported. Patients with influenza complications or an exacerbation of their underlying chronic medical condition are often not reported as influenza related.

PHAC has taken data collected by Statistics Canada and hospital discharge records from the Canadian Institute of Health Information and applied statistical techniques to provide an estimate of influenza related deaths.

Q2. Are the numbers an average over the last 10 years? Have the numbers stabilized?

As previously indicated, it is difficult to assess the true burden of influenza in terms of incidence, deaths and hospitalization. However, it is estimated that, on average, the flu and its complications send about 20,000 Canadians to hospital every year, and between 2,000 and 8,000 Canadians die.

Q3. Why is it important to inform Canadians about these death statistics?

Reporting on these death statistics informs Canadians that infection with influenza can be severe and in some cases result in death. Hence, Canadians should get their seasonal flu shot to prevent infection and to practice infection control measures such as hand washing, cough etiquette and staying home when sick to prevent spread.
bye kiv it's been fun ;)
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby T on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:45 am

this beautiful bliss wrote:Fluviral contains thimerosal



I don't believe that to be true.

That's one of the points used to deflate the argument about vaccines causing autism as thimersol hasn't been in vaccines for a few years now yet there hasn't been a decline in the cases of autism.
Image
User avatar
T
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 1:48 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby Aladora on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:47 am

this beautiful bliss wrote:I guess I need to post the entire article here so maybe you'll read it. It's saying a lot more about the numbers then what you are saying.


Thanks for posting this, I actually read the entire article before I posted. I like to make sure I have all the facts at my disposal.

The numbers we do have don't even come close to the computer estimates. In Statistics Canada's "deaths and mortality" table, under "cause of death: influenza," there were only about 300 deaths a year between 2000 and 2008. Public health officials don't trust that number. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.


I have taken this paragraph out of the article, put the information I am discussing in bold but left the remainder of the paragraph to ensure that what I am debating is not taking this sentence out of context.

The article is saying that Statistics Canada is reporting that there were only 300 deaths due to influenza per year between 2000 and 2008.

Here is a link directly to the Statistics Canada website, the link will take you to the table for deaths for each of the years of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. I guess I have to repost this table so that you will read it.

Even though the table I have does not include 2000-2004, the numbers that are actually coming directly from the government agency that the cbc news article is referencing incorrectly.

Deaths and mortality rate, by selected grouped causes, age group and sex, Canada

I have made sure that the filters for age and group include all ages and both genders.

The 28th line down has the figures we are talking about.
Influenza and pneumonia [J09-J18]
2005: 5,845
2006: 5,152
2007: 5,452
2008: 5,386
2009: 5,826
Susan
When life hands you lemons, ask for the tequila and salt!
User avatar
Aladora
KIV Advertiser
KIV Advertiser
 
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:18 am
Location: On the Left Coast
Region:

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby Aladora on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:50 am

T wrote:
this beautiful bliss wrote:Fluviral contains thimerosal



I don't believe that to be true.

That's one of the points used to deflate the argument about vaccines causing autism as thimersol hasn't been in vaccines for a few years now yet there hasn't been a decline in the cases of autism.


Sorry T, that's not correct....at least not the first part of your post, Fluviral does contain Thimerosal as a preservative.

Product monograph from GlaxoSmithKline
Susan
When life hands you lemons, ask for the tequila and salt!
User avatar
Aladora
KIV Advertiser
KIV Advertiser
 
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:18 am
Location: On the Left Coast
Region:

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby bye kiv it's been fun ;) on Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:54 am

T wrote:
this beautiful bliss wrote:Fluviral contains thimerosal



I don't believe that to be true.

That's one of the points used to deflate the argument about vaccines causing autism as thimersol hasn't been in vaccines for a few years now yet there hasn't been a decline in the cases of autism.


Guess you had better get reading the actual flu vaccine inserts as I did for the 2013-2014 'season'. There is 100ug/mL of Thimerosal in the Fluviral vaccine.
bye kiv it's been fun ;)
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby bye kiv it's been fun ;) on Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:06 pm

Aladora wrote:
this beautiful bliss wrote:I guess I need to post the entire article here so maybe you'll read it. It's saying a lot more about the numbers then what you are saying.


Thanks for posting this, I actually read the entire article before I posted. I like to make sure I have all the facts at my disposal.

The numbers we do have don't even come close to the computer estimates. In Statistics Canada's "deaths and mortality" table, under "cause of death: influenza," there were only about 300 deaths a year between 2000 and 2008. Public health officials don't trust that number. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.


I have taken this paragraph out of the article, put the information I am discussing in bold but left the remainder of the paragraph to ensure that what I am debating is not taking this sentence out of context.

The article is saying that Statistics Canada is reporting that there were only 300 deaths due to influenza per year between 2000 and 2008.

Here is a link directly to the Statistics Canada website, the link will take you to the table for deaths for each of the years of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. I guess I have to repost this table so that you will read it.

Even though the table I have does not include 2000-2004, the numbers that are actually coming directly from the government agency that the cbc news article is referencing incorrectly.

Deaths and mortality rate, by selected grouped causes, age group and sex, Canada

I have made sure that the filters for age and group include all ages and both genders.

The 28th line down has the figures we are talking about.
Influenza and pneumonia [J09-J18]
2005: 5,845
2006: 5,152
2007: 5,452
2008: 5,386
2009: 5,826


Sorry, I should have quoted Vicstepmom as what I said was directed at her post, not yours.

Clearly CBC News would have gotten all their numbers directly from the sources at the time of writing the article. The article was written in 2012 and we are now looking at the Stats Can website as of 2014. We have no way of knowing if the article didn't cause an edit. It would be ridiculous for them to post 300 when clearly, it is easy enough for anyone to look up. Something isn't 'adding up'.

Regardless, the article also states how numbers are generated. Or is that also wrong too? Or is everything in the entire article wrong? :lol:

Bottom line for me, people are being scared into taking a potentially harmful and unnecessary vaccine every year due to fear from numbers. That, to me, is wrong. And let's not forget that unless you stay home after taking the Flumist vaccine, you are risking more people than someone who has not.
bye kiv it's been fun ;)
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby Aladora on Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:27 pm

this beautiful bliss wrote:Bottom line for me, people are being scared into taking a potentially harmful and unnecessary vaccine every year due to fear from numbers. That, to me, is wrong. And let's not forget that unless you stay home after taking the Flumist vaccine, you are risking more people than someone who has not.


Bottom line for me is this, the flu kills people every year, be it 300 or 5826. If I can do anything to help protect myself and my child against a disease that kills people, I will.

And finally, the last line of your post that I bolded, yes of course what you said is true, after getting the LAIV you are more likely to shed the vaccine than if you had not received the vaccine. However, there has only been one case of someone actually transmitting the virus to another person and only people with severely compromised immune systems are at risk when they come into contact with someone who has received the LAIV. The one and only documented case of someone having the live vaccine transmitted to them remained totally asymptomatic and never became ill.

Only one confirmed case of LAIV virus transmission to a placebo recipient (who did not become ill) occurred in a transmission study conducted in young children.


From U.S. National Library of Medicine 2011 study.
Susan
When life hands you lemons, ask for the tequila and salt!
User avatar
Aladora
KIV Advertiser
KIV Advertiser
 
Posts: 2840
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:18 am
Location: On the Left Coast
Region:

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby T on Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:28 pm

this beautiful bliss wrote:
T wrote:
this beautiful bliss wrote:Fluviral contains thimerosal



I don't believe that to be true.

That's one of the points used to deflate the argument about vaccines causing autism as thimersol hasn't been in vaccines for a few years now yet there hasn't been a decline in the cases of autism.


Guess you had better get reading the actual flu vaccine inserts as I did for the 2013-2014 'season'. There is 100ug/mL of Thimerosal in the Fluviral vaccine.


We got the agriflu (which is the version that we got from the health unit). No thimersol in that one or in the nasal spray.
Image
User avatar
T
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 1028
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 1:48 pm

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby ItsKim on Mon Jan 13, 2014 2:36 pm

T wrote:
this beautiful bliss wrote:Fluviral contains thimerosal



I don't believe that to be true.

That's one of the points used to deflate the argument about vaccines causing autism as thimersol hasn't been in vaccines for a few years now yet there hasn't been a decline in the cases of autism.


Unfortunately, this is true. It's used a preservative in Fluviral.

As far as our routine vaccines in Canada, I don't think it is in those.
ItsKim
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 2103
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:05 am
Location: Victoria
Region:

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby TazDevil on Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:25 pm

To me 1 is enough and there was 1 (under 50) recently in Vancouver of H1N1. It is enough if it is your daughter or child or mother.

My friends DS was 1 in 14 Million to die of a genetic disorder. Odds didn't matter one bit to his mom.
Out of clutter, find simplicity. From discord, find harmony. In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity. ― Albert Einstein
User avatar
TazDevil
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 4553
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:06 am

Re: How many deaths from flu in Canada per year ARE there?

Postby DELETEPLEASE on Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:57 pm

this beautiful bliss wrote:Bottom line for me, people are being scared into taking a potentially harmful and unnecessary vaccine every year due to fear from numbers.


No, here's the bottom line.
Number of deaths per year from flu: 300-8000 depending on how you count. The issue is very complex as was already pointed out in this thread.
Number of deaths from flu vaccine: 0
DELETEPLEASE
KI(vic) Member
KI(vic) Member
 
Posts: 402
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:02 pm

Previous

 

Return to Health, Wellness & Fitness

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest



Site Sponsors
Island Parent Saanich Recreation
About Us | Contact Us | Advertise | FAQ | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Tell a Friend | Link Exchange | Help
© 2014. Island Parent Group. All Rights Reserved. Auto Login: Off